Sport Boys have anchored their survival hopes on a rigid home defense at the Estadio Miguel Grau. They have conceded just five goals in eight home matches, forcing visiting teams to settle for low-percentage chances.

Comerciantes Unidos are experiencing a sharp drop in away attacking production. They failed to score in consecutive road losses to ADT and Cienciano, exposing a lack of creativity when playing outside their comfort zone.

The hosts dictate a slow, grinding tempo in Callao to protect their backline. Their last three home fixtures have produced a combined total of just three goals, underscoring a clear preference for controlled, low-risk football.

Despite sitting four points higher in the Liga 1 standings, Comerciantes Unidos average a mere 42% possession overall. They will likely adopt a reactive posture against a Sport Boys side that urgently needs points to distance themselves from the drop zone.

The underlying metrics point firmly away from an open shootout in this matchup. Neither team generates high-volume big chances, and the visitors' recent attacking blanks make the unders market the most logical interpretation.