Roma’s recent results swing between convincing attacking displays and defensive lapses, with two losses in their last three but a clean sheet and three goals against Pisa showing they can still dominate weaker sides at home.

Atalanta’s run of form is steadier, especially away from home, and their ability to create big chances stands out. They’ve scored in every league match since early March, even when up against stronger opposition.

Head-to-head history tilts toward Atalanta, who have taken points consistently from Roma in recent seasons. Even so, the fixture has only rarely produced clean sheets for either side, and both tend to score when they meet.

Injury issues for Roma—missing Dybala, Pellegrini, and Mancini—will force more reliance on Malen and Soulé, both of whom are direct but less consistent in end product. Atalanta arrive closer to full strength in key areas, with De Ketelaere in good form.

Both teams average over 1.3 goals scored per match this season, and both are conceding close to a goal per game. Neither side has a strong trend toward low-scoring games against top-eight opponents.

Game-state patterns indicate a likelihood of open play in the second half, with Roma conceding late and Atalanta scoring more after the break. That supports a read of the match as open and tilted toward goals rather than a cagey affair.

Market odds slightly favor Roma but do not price in their absentees enough. The risk on a home win is higher than the public expects, while both teams to score and over 1.5 goals are supported by underlying stats and tactical setup.