Real Sociedad have produced a patchy but potent run in recent weeks, alternating wins and losses but showing enough edge in the final third. Their home scoring record — 29 in 15 matches — stands out, especially with Oyarzabal and Soler both available to drive the attack.

Alavés are drifting in lower mid-table for a reason: away games have been a major weakness, with defensive lapses and a lack of cutting edge up front. Just 13 away goals and 25 conceded highlight a tendency to fade against organized hosts.

The head-to-head record leans toward Sociedad, with five wins from the last ten meetings. Alavés have caused problems before but rarely travel well in this fixture, and their current squad doesn't suggest a gear change.

Both sides have issues with defensive security, but Real Sociedad's attacking metrics — more shots, more big chances, higher xG per match — make them a consistent threat, especially in open phases. Alavés' discipline record, including yellow and red card rates, could also play a role late on.

Sociedad's injury list is a factor, especially at the back, but the midfield depth and home energy should keep them in control for long spells. Alavés' best route is set pieces or transition, yet their conversion rate hasn't matched their volume.

Betting markets are heavily shaded toward the hosts, and the odds movement on both the win and goals markets suggest the public sees Sociedad as clear favorites. 1X holds up as the foundation — anything else adds unnecessary risk.

In summary, Sociedad's current level and home dynamics make them the clear value, but the safer bracket is to keep the draw in play given the defensive injury situation. Anything else asks too much from a fragile Alavés outfit.