This Coupe de France final at the Stade de France is a defining moment for both clubs. Finals often start with a cautious tempo, but the missing personnel at the back suggests this match will break open quickly once the first goal goes in.

Lens arrive as the clear favorites despite a minor dip in their last two league outings. Their forward line was operating at an elite level right before that, putting four past Toulouse and five past Angers in dominant performances.

Nice are limping into this fixture with just one win in their last eight matches across all competitions. Their defense has looked increasingly fragile lately, shipping multiple goals against Auxerre, Strasbourg, and PSG.

Injuries at the back are the defining narrative here. Lens are missing Jonathan Gradit and Samson Baidoo, while Nice have lost Moise Bombito, forcing both managers to rely on unproven defensive combinations.

The betting market has caught onto these absences, driving the Over 2.5 goals price down significantly. That sharp movement makes perfect sense when looking at the recent chaotic scorelines in Lens' matches.

These two met in the league just a few weeks ago in a tight 1-1 draw. Playing at a neutral venue with silverware on the line changes the dynamic, and the depleted defenses mean attackers will find more space to exploit this time around.