Varaždin’s last five HNL matches show a side that struggles for consistency, settling for draws in three of them but rarely keeping the back door shut. Their average rating is steady, but recent defensive metrics hint at structural fragility, especially with key midfield absences due to suspension.

Slaven Belupo sit just below Varaždin in the table but match up closely on points and general output. Their away form isn’t disastrous but is marked by a soft underbelly—27 goals conceded in 14 away games, and just five clean sheets all season.

Head-to-head meetings tend to produce a winner, with only one draw in the last ten, and the last clash at this venue went 1-3 to Slaven, reinforcing the theme of defensive lapses on both sides. Managers haven’t shown a tendency to play for a stalemate when these teams meet.

Both sides are more effective in the attacking phase than their table position suggests. Varaždin generate plenty of shots, find space in transition, and have multiple players capable of contributing even with Jurić out. Slaven’s front line is opportunistic, and the midfield is capable of chipping in.

Game state data shows goals arriving in clusters, especially just before halftime and late in games, a pattern that fits with loose defensive structure and occasional lapses in focus.

Fan sentiment is lopsided toward Varaždin, but the market isn’t convinced, pricing all three outcomes tightly. Neither side inspires confidence as a win pick—there’s more value in backing goals.

With both lineups carrying absences in key positions but retaining enough attacking quality, the game shapes up as one where both teams find the net and the total lands over 1.5 with plenty of margin.