Lokomotiva Zagreb enters this crucial late-season fixture sitting just two points behind Rijeka in the race for European qualification. The hosts bring excellent momentum, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches while securing three victories in that span. Rijeka, conversely, has hit a stumbling block, managing just one win in their last five and dropping vital points in recent weeks.

Rijeka's attacking output has completely dried up, as they failed to find the net in their last two matches against Hajduk Split and Varaždin. Their offensive struggles are compounded by the absence of key midfielder Toni Fruk, who dictates their creative play. Without his influence, the visitors lack the necessary penetration to consistently threaten the penalty area.

Lokomotiva's recent success has been built on a rigid defensive foundation. They have kept three clean sheets in their last five league fixtures, showing excellent discipline out of possession. This stability makes them incredibly difficult to break down, especially at Stadion Maksimir where they are comfortable absorbing pressure.

While Rijeka has historically dominated this matchup with six away wins in their last ten visits, current form heavily outweighs that history. The stakes are massive with only four matches remaining, meaning neither side can afford an expansive approach. A loss for either team could effectively end their hopes of catching third-placed Varaždin.

The market still respects Rijeka's reputation, pricing them as slight away favorites despite their attacking woes. The match reality points toward a low-scoring affair driven by Lokomotiva's defensive form and Rijeka's missing personnel. Under 2.5 Goals offers the strongest value, while stepping up to Under 3.5 Goals provides a very secure position given the lack of recent firepower on both sides.