Inter have been a scoring machine at San Siro, netting 47 goals in 17 home games — a rate of 2.76 per match. They score in every period, with their most dangerous windows coming after half-time: nine goals each in the 46-60 and 61-75 slots, and 11 in the final 15. Parma have no answer for that volume of pressure across 90 minutes.

Parma's away record this season is one of the weakest in Serie A for attacking output — just 12 goals in 17 away games, under 0.71 per match. They've also conceded 18 on the road and face particular problems in the first and final 15 minutes. Arriving at San Siro as a dead-rubber side, there's no realistic scenario where they threaten to contain Inter for long.

The H2H record here is emphatic. Inter have won seven of the last 10 meetings with Parma, drawing the other three — Parma have never won any of these 10 encounters. There's no H2H precedent for Parma causing an upset or even forcing a result, and nothing about their current form or squad quality changes that picture.

Inter are missing Calhanoglu through injury, which removes their most important creative player in midfield. Zielinski steps in and the 3-5-2 with Barella, Mkhitaryan, and Dimarco still carries significant quality — but the absence does slightly reduce the ceiling of their build-up play. It doesn't fundamentally alter the match outcome, but it could affect the margin of victory.

Market movement has been decisive. Over 2.5 has gone from underdog pricing at 11/8 to 1/2 — a complete reversal — while Under 2.5 drifted from 4/7 to 13/8. Inter scoring first at 1/4 reflects the one-way traffic expected. This is sharp money aligning with what the season data already shows: Inter score freely at home and Parma cannot sustain a defensive performance for 90 minutes against this quality of opponent.

The title stakes add a layer of intensity that Parma simply cannot match. Inter are 10 points clear with four games remaining — a win here moves them to the brink of confirmation. Parma are mathematically safe and have no European target. Simone Inzaghi's side will approach this with full focus, and a home crowd of 75,000 will push them from the off.