Rijeka faces a strict motivational imperative, sitting five points outside the final European qualification spot with the season rapidly closing. Hajduk Split arrives in a completely different psychological state, functionally locked into second place with no realistic path to the title and no immediate threat from below.

Hajduk’s recent road form completely contradicts their stabilized league position. Their last six away fixtures have devolved into chaotic, high-scoring affairs, all clearing the Over 2.5 threshold and exposing a persistent structural openness away from Poljud.

The hosts bring concerning offensive form into the contest, having blanked in three of their last four league matches. The standings remove any option for a conservative game plan, mandating an aggressive approach since a draw does nothing to close the gap on third place.

Operating without Toni Fruk removes Rijeka's primary creative hub, a key factor in their recent struggles in the final third. Hajduk faces their own midfield depletion without Filip Krovinović. The retention of Marko Livaja ensures the visitors still carry elite transitional quality to exploit vacated space.

Historical patterns between these specific squads reinforce the likelihood of an open contest. Rijeka’s 3-2 cup victory over Hajduk last month serves as a direct blueprint for how this matchup accelerates when both sides abandon rigid defensive shapes.

Early market movement has heavily backed the Under, likely reacting to the missing personnel and Rijeka's recent scoring issues. That consensus ignores the tactical reality of a home side forced to overcommit, making structural goal markets the sharpest interpretation of the underlying game state.