Hajduk Split enter this fixture with their season effectively over, sitting comfortably in second place with no chance of catching Dinamo Zagreb. Varaždin arrive with everything on the line as they try to hold off Rijeka for the third and final European qualification spot. That massive disparity in motivation completely redefines how this matchup should be evaluated.

The hosts have looked visibly uninspired in recent weeks, failing to find the back of the net in their last two matches against Rijeka and Osijek. Their defensive depth is also being severely tested, with several regular defenders unavailable due to injury and suspension. Playing a dead-rubber match with a patched-up backline is a dangerous combination against a hungry opponent.

Varaždin have been playing with real urgency, picking up three wins in their last five matches to put themselves in pole position for third place. Even their recent away defeat to champions Dinamo Zagreb showed resilience, as they managed to score and keep the contest tight. They know how to handle pressure and will treat this trip to Split like a knockout tie.

Historical meetings between these two sides have been remarkably balanced, with three wins apiece and four draws over their last ten clashes. Despite this even record, the markets initially priced Hajduk as heavy favorites, though significant drift is already showing as money moves away from the home side. The sharp drop in odds for Over 2.5 Goals also signals an expectation that this won't be a quiet, controlled affair.

Backing an unmotivated favorite carrying defensive injuries is always a poor long-term strategy. Varaždin have the tangible incentive to push for a result and the attacking form to exploit Hajduk's missing personnel. Taking the visitors on the double chance provides excellent value against a home side that has already checked out for the season.