Barcelona's offensive metrics and head-to-head dominance (9 wins in 10, 4-0 in November) indicate a high likelihood of a clear win at home, even with some absences. Real Madrid have shown vulnerability defensively, especially away, while both teams' attacking profiles and recent scoring patterns make a high goal total probable. Over 2.5 goals safely encompasses both Barcelona's win and the possibility of some Real Madrid contribution, reducing exposure to an unlikely upset.