The stakes dictate everything in this Round 37 clash. Empoli are fighting for their Serie B lives in the relegation play-out zone, while Avellino are desperately clinging to the final promotion playoff spot. Neither side can afford a fatal mistake at this late stage of the season.

Momentum belongs to the visitors heading into the weekend. Avellino have strung together consecutive 2-0 victories to solidify their standing, whereas Empoli have stalled completely, going winless in their last four matches.

Empoli's attacking output has completely dried up under the weight of the relegation battle. The home side has managed just a single goal across their last 360 minutes of football, struggling to break down organized blocks.

The pressure of the run-in has forced both managers into a more conservative shape. This tightening is obvious in the recent results, with the last four matches for both Empoli and Avellino all ending with two goals or fewer.

Sharp money has already taken a firm position on a low-scoring affair, driving the Under odds down significantly since the market opened. In a match where a point serves Avellino well and Empoli cannot afford to lose, backing a tense, low-event script makes perfect sense.