Brighton's need to hold off Brentford for a guaranteed Europa League spot entirely shapes this matchup. Manchester United arrive mathematically cemented in third place, stripping them of any real competitive urgency for the final 90 minutes of the season. That asymmetry in motivation is the defining variable.

Recent performances at the Amex show a home side peaking at the right time. Emphatic 3-0 victories over both Chelsea and Wolves highlight a clinical edge that has turned their home ground into a fortress during the run-in.

Conceding 26 goals in 18 road matches exposes a persistent vulnerability in the visitors' away form. United's backline has struggled to contain high-intensity pressing away from Old Trafford all season. Facing a highly motivated Brighton attack, those defensive cracks are likely to surface again.

Heavy market movement toward the home side confirms the expected motivational gap. Sharp odds drops on both a Brighton victory and high goal totals indicate strong backing for an aggressive, front-foot performance against a potentially rotated United eleven.

Relying on United's individual quality is a risky proposition given their lack of stakes. While Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha remain dangerous on the break, Brighton's absolute need for three points ensures they will dictate the tempo and intensity from the first whistle.