Atlético’s recent schedule has been punishing, but their capacity to deliver goals in big games remains intact. Even when results have gone against them, they’ve consistently found the net, including a two-goal display at Camp Nou and a five-goal haul versus Tottenham.

Real Sociedad’s scoring output has been quietly robust, hitting at least once in every match across their last seven in all competitions. The midfield has carried much of the creative burden, but there’s enough variety up front to trouble undermanned defenses.

Head-to-head, Atlético have dominated the results column in Madrid, yet those encounters rarely finish with clean sheets. The last meeting saw a 3-2 result, and both teams have scored in each of the last four at this venue.

Squad news is not insignificant. Atlético face possible doubts at center-back, but Sociedad’s list of absentees—especially Zubeldia and Herrera—makes their defensive structure more vulnerable, likely pushing the match toward open phases.

Tactically, this does not shape up as a cagey semi-final. Both managers have leaned into attacking transitions and aggressive pressing in cup ties, which tends to amplify scoring chances rather than suppress them.

Market movement on goals points to a modest rise in ‘Over’ pricing, but not enough to sway the call away from a goals angle. The home win is too widely tipped for value; the high-probability play remains in goals markets.

Overall, the risk profile for a goals pick is far lower than for a match result, and recent form from both sides supports a proactive approach.