Momentum in the final third has swung toward Atalanta, who are averaging three goals per Coppa Italia match and boasting significant shot volume, especially inside the box. Their ability to exploit late-game phases is a recurring theme, with five of their last nine goals coming after the 75th minute.

Lazio’s recent form on the road shows resilience, including a clean sheet at Napoli and two-goal returns in away fixtures at Bologna and Napoli. However, their attack is more functional than explosive, and key injuries in their defensive line could prove costly against Atalanta’s pressure.

Head-to-head meetings are balanced—each side with three wins in their last ten and four draws, including the 2-2 in the first leg. These encounters tend to swing open once the deadlock breaks, rarely ending without goals on both sides.

Atalanta’s defensive record in this competition is robust at home (zero goals conceded in two Coppa Italia home ties), but recent league outings display some fragility, especially when pressed by quality forwards. Lazio’s tactical style under Sarri should guarantee spells of pressure and at least one significant scoring spell.

Missing players tilt the physical battles slightly in Atalanta’s favor, especially with Lazio shorthanded in defense and midfield. The return of De Roon to form and a lack of red cards or discipline concerns further stabilizes the home side’s outlook.

Betting markets have shortened on Atalanta to score first and for the total to clear two goals. The lean remains toward a contest that sees both teams find opportunities, but Atalanta’s edge in offensive reliability makes defeat unlikely inside 90 minutes.

All signs point away from a cagey affair. The underlying metrics and match context combine for a contest that is more likely to see multiple goals and Atalanta at least avoiding defeat in regulation.