CD Castellón arrive in Ceuta with immense motivation, sitting fifth in the table and needing points to lock down a promotion playoff spot. The hosts are drifting in mid-table with 54 points, effectively safe from relegation but too far back to mount a realistic top-six challenge. That disparity in stakes often dictates the tempo late in the season.

Recent form points heavily toward an open contest, driven almost entirely by the visitors. Castellón's last five matches have been chaotic, high-scoring affairs, with scorelines like 3-2, 3-1, and 2-2 becoming the norm. They commit numbers forward aggressively, leaving spaces that opponents frequently exploit.

Despite their lofty league position, Castellón struggle to control matches defensively on the road. They have shipped 25 goals in 19 away trips, a vulnerability that forces their attack to constantly outscore their own mistakes. This imbalance makes clean sheets a rarity for Pablo Hernández's side.

Ceuta might lack outright motivation, but playing without pressure allows them to express themselves going forward. They have been inconsistent lately, mixing scoreless draws with higher-scoring encounters, but their home record of 25 goals in 18 matches proves they can punish visiting teams. Castellón’s aggressive shape will offer the hosts transition opportunities.

The market heavily anticipates goals here, pricing the overs aggressively. Given Castellón's desperate need for a win and their inability to sit back and defend leads, the match script points toward a back-and-forth contest. Taking the goals angle avoids the risk of trusting a leaky favorite on the road.